Unit I
IN THIS LESSON
If we can’t prove whether God exists, should we treat belief like a gamble—and choose the option with the best payoff?
Topics discussed:
The philosophical dilemma of whether belief in God should be based on reason, faith, or skepticism.
Major positions on the existence of God: rational theism, fideism, deism, atheism, non-theism, and agnosticism.
The life and intellectual background of Blaise Pascal, mathematician, theologian, and pioneer of probability theory.
The historical origins of probability theory, including early work by gamblers like Gerolamo Cardano and Pascal’s correspondence with Fermat.
The concept of expected utility and how decision theory evaluates rational choices under uncertainty.
The structure of Pascal’s Wager, which argues that believing in God maximizes expected value because of the possibility of infinite reward.
Mathematical objections to the wager, including the Many Gods objection and the Zero Probability objection.
Psychological and ethical objections, including doxastic involuntarism, the moral integrity objection, and the Many Hells objection.
Focus Questions
What are the major philosophical positions regarding God’s existence (e.g., rational theism, fideism, atheism, agnosticism)?
Who was Blaise Pascal, and why was he an important figure in both mathematics and philosophy?
What is expected utility, and how is it used in decision theory?
How does a decision matrix help us evaluate choices under uncertainty?
What is the basic argument of Pascal’s Wager?
Why does Pascal think believing in God has infinite expected utility?
How does the Many Gods objection challenge Pascal’s reasoning?
What is the Zero Probability objection, and how might an atheist use it against the Wager?
Why might someone argue that belief cannot simply be chosen for strategic reasons (doxastic involuntarism)?
Does Pascal’s Wager encourage belief in God, or merely encourage acting as if one believes?
Does the Wager pursue truth, or does it pursue safety and risk avoidance?
What role did Pascal’s personal religious experience play in shaping his thinking about faith and reason?
Glossary
Theories of Religious Belief
Rational Theism
The view that belief in an all-powerful, all-knowing, and all-loving God can be defended through philosophical reasoning.
Fideism
The view that belief in God depends on faith rather than reason or evidence.
Deism
The belief that a creator God exists but does not intervene in the world.
Atheism (Anti-theism)
The belief that God does not exist.
Non-theism
The absence of belief in God without necessarily asserting that God does not exist.
Agnosticism
The position that knowledge of God’s existence is unknown or unknowable.
Decision Theory Concepts
Expected Utility
A calculation used in decision theory that combines the probability of outcomes with their value to determine which action is most rational.
Utility
The value assigned to an outcome, often measured in terms of benefit, payoff, or satisfaction.
Decision Matrix
A table used to evaluate the possible outcomes of different actions under different states of the world.
Probability
A numerical measure of how likely an event is to occur.
Pascal’s Argument
Pascal’s Wager
A family of arguments claiming that it is rational to believe in God because the potential reward (eternal happiness) outweighs any finite cost of belief.
Infinite Utility
A payoff that is infinitely valuable (e.g., eternal salvation), which dominates any finite loss in expected value calculations.
Objections to the Wager
Many Gods Objection
The challenge that many competing religions promise infinite rewards, making it unclear which belief one should wager on.
Zero Probability Objection
The argument that if the probability of God’s existence is zero, the expected value of believing in God is also zero.
Doxastic Involuntarism
The view that beliefs cannot be chosen at will; they require genuine conviction.
Moral Integrity Objection
The concern that believing in God merely for self-interest may be morally insincere.
Many Hells Objection
The argument that different religions threaten punishment for believing the wrong doctrine, complicating Pascal’s wager.
For other questions…
Reading List
Sarah Bakewell, How to Live: Or A Life of Montaigne in One Question and Twenty Attempts at an Answer
Douglas Groothuis, Beyond the Wager: The Christian Brilliance of Blaise Pascal
Alan Hájek, Pascal’s Wager (in the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)
Blaise Pascal, Pensées